Predicting the next market correction

This is simply a question of curiosity for me. I'm curious as to when you think the next correction will be.

Comments

  • Hi there chad,

    This is a very difficult, if not impossible, question to answer given the number of variables at play. In all honesty one can only speak in general terms when attempting to make these kind of macro economic forecasts. Often, the catalyst for such an event is not even considered by the investment community and emerges as a blackswan event.

    With that caveat in mind I think there is a strong probability of a market correction in the near to mid-term (1-3 years) given the length of this recent bull market run in equities and the elevated valuations which exist. Having spent some time studying the work of Professor Steve Keen and Credit expert Richard Vague the empirical data appears to suggest that the level of private debt and it's rate of growth relative to GDP exhibits a strong correlation with economic performance and the likelihood of a market correction and an economic crisis occuring. Fom the several countries Professor Keen has listed as having a high probability of crisis (China, Canada, Australia, S. Korea, Norway, Sweden and France), China appears to be the biggest concern given the global impact that may occur if an economic downturn emerges there. For more information on Professor Keen's research see here;





    I think it is also worth noting the opinion of Professor Greenwald as his knowledge and analysis tends to be on point and he often has very profound insights on both markets and the wider economy. See here;




    In summary I think it impossible to pinpoint an exact time frame and catalyst for a market correction but the available empirical data suggests that a market correction is highly likely within the near to mid-term (1-3 years)

    Regards,

    David
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